Congressional leaders, leaving no
extra time before a default threatened for tomorrow, are racing
to push through a compromise sealed with President
Barack Obama
last night to raise the U.S. debt limit by at least $2.1
trillion and slash government spending by $2.4 trillion or more.
The House plans votes today and the Senate may follow suit
to consider the
agreement reached during a weekend of
negotiations that capped a months-long struggle between Obama
and Republicans over raising the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling.
Both parties were working to sell the deal to their rank
and file -- meeting resistance from some Democrats who fault it
for failing to increase taxes and from a faction of Republicans
who say it’s insufficient to rein in the debt.
House Republicans plan to discuss the measure in a party
caucus at 12:30 p.m., according to a congressional aide. Vice
President
Joe Biden plans to attend meetings of the House and
Senate Democratic caucuses to rally support.
Representative Steny Hoyer, the second-ranking Democrat in
the House, said a majority of House Republicans must vote for
the measure if it is to pass. The Maryland Democrat, appearing
on Bloomberg Television, said leaders have missed an opportunity
for a more “balanced” agreement, yet the nation cannot afford
to default on its obligations.
At Least 121
“The Republicans are going to have to offer a very
substantial number of votes” to pass the measure, Hoyer said,
adding that he expected “at least 121.”
“The leaders of both parties in both chambers have reached
an agreement that will reduce the deficit and avoid default,”
Obama said in an appearance in the White House briefing room
last night as congressional aides were drafting the legislative
language. “This compromise does make a serious down payment on
the deficit-reduction we need. Most importantly, it will allow
us to avoid default.”
U.S. stocks rose. The
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.9
percent to 1,303.43 at 9:37 a.m. in
New York. The
Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained 96.95 points, or 0.8 percent, to
12,240.19.
Treasuries pared losses. Yields on two-year debt touched
the lowest level since July 19. Ten-year notes earlier fell the
most in more than one week.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note climbed one basis
point to 2.80 percent as of 8:35 a.m. in New York, according to
Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The security yielded 2.77 percent
at the end of last week, the least since Nov. 30.
Two-Year Notes
Yields on two-year notes were little changed at 0.36 after
touching 0.35 percent. Thirty-year bonds yielded 4.15 percent,
three basis points more than their previous close.
Credit-default swaps on Treasuries dropped eight basis
points to 53, the biggest retreat since February 2010.
“The threat of default is now for certain off the specter
of this economy, no longer a headwind” for the
U.S. economy,
Gene Sperling, director of the National Economic Council, said
today on Bloomberg Television.
The Treasury Department has said it will reach the
borrowing limit and run out of options for avoiding default
tomorrow without action by Congress to raise the debt ceiling.
Congressional leaders expressed optimism they would avoid that
risk -- however narrowly.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said
he was relieved to announce “a historic bipartisan compromise
that ends this dangerous standoff,” adding that Republicans and
Democrats would have to unite to push it through.
Not ‘Greatest’
House Speaker
John Boehner of
Ohio told fellow Republicans
in a conference call around the same time that the deal wasn’t
the world’s greatest, yet showed that their party had changed
the debate in
Washington, according to an official familiar with
the conversation.
Senator Jim DeMint, the South Carolina Republican who co-
founded the Senate’s Tea Party Caucus, said he won’t try to
block action on the debt-ceiling increase.
DeMint, a fiscal conservative known for using Senate
procedures to stymie legislation he opposes, said he may seek to
slow consideration of the bill while he studies the details.
“If they throw it on the floor and want us to vote an hour
later, that isn’t going to happen,” DeMint said in an
interview.
Learning the Details
Lawmakers who were to vote within hours on the measure were
just learning its details. It would raise the debt ceiling in
two installments, sufficient to serve the nation’s needs into
2013. The framework, as detailed by officials in both parties,
would cut $917 billion in spending over a decade, raise the debt
limit initially by $900 billion and assign a special
congressional committee to find another $1.5 trillion in deficit
savings by late November, to be enacted by Christmas.
If Congress met that deadline and deficit target, or voted
to send a balanced-budget constitutional amendment to the
states, Obama would receive another $1.5 trillion borrowing
boost.
In the case of Congress failing to take either step, or not
producing debt savings of at least $1.2 trillion, the plan
allows the president to obtain a $1.2 trillion debt-ceiling
extension. Still, that would trigger automatic spending cuts
across the government -- including in defense and Medicare -- to
take effect starting in 2013. The Medicare cuts would only
affect provider reimbursements, not benefits.
$400 Billion
An initial $400 billion increase in borrowing authority
couldn’t be blocked under the deal. While Congress would get a
chance to avert both debt-limit increases through disapproval
resolutions, there’s little chance opponents could muster the
two-thirds majorities needed in both chambers to override
Obama’s veto.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky
Republican, said the agreement wouldn’t be final until members
of his party had the chance to evaluate it. “But at this point,
I think I can say with a high degree of confidence that there is
now a framework to review that will ensure significant cuts in
Washington spending,” and that there would be no default, he
said.
Representative Marsha Blackburn, a Tennessee Republican,
said today she was reserving judgment until the
Congressional
Budget Office weighed in with its savings estimate.
“We don’t any more budget tricks, we don’t want any more
accounting gimmicks,” Blackburn said on Bloomberg Television.
Concessions
In the final stage of negotiations, both sides made
concessions. Republicans dropped their insistence on withholding
some of the borrowing authority until future spending cuts had
been made and a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution
had been passed by both chambers of Congress. Those terms were
included in a bill the House passed narrowly and along party
lines July 29, only to see the measure defeated in the Senate
less than 24 hours later.
The White House agreed to forgo an automatic tax increase,
a sticking point for Republicans, as one of the consequences to
kick in if no debt-reduction law was enacted by Christmas.
Even so, Obama has an opportunity to increase revenue in
the future if he opts to allow the tax cuts enacted under
George W. Bush to expire as scheduled in 2013. Even if Obama lost his
re-election campaign next year, he could veto legislation to
extend those cuts before leaving office -- producing an
estimated $3.5 trillion.
White House officials said the enforcement mechanisms will
help them press Obama’s agenda as further deficit reductions are
made, including additional
tax revenue.
Automatic Cuts
The automatic spending cuts would include deep reductions
in the
defense budget, which Republicans oppose. That measure
preserves leverage for Democrats in committee negotiations, the
officials told reporters on condition of anonymity.
Because any spending cuts would be delayed until 2013,
timed to coincide with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts,
Republicans would have an added incentive to agree to overhaul
taxes, which Democrats want to use for raising revenue.
Republicans argue that while the super-committee could
propose tax increases, it wouldn’t likely do so, because the
rules of the deal require that it assume -- as the Congressional
Budget Office does -- the Bush tax cuts expire as scheduled at
the end of 2012. That would mean that to count any new revenue
toward
deficit reduction, the committee would need to both erase
the Bush tax reductions and then generate additional revenue on
top of that.
Balanced-Budget Amendment
In addition to guaranteeing a vote on the balanced-budget
constitutional amendment between October and the end of the
year, the agreement could give Republicans a chance to renew
their push for the measure at the height of 2012 campaigns.
If Congress failed to enact the deficit-reduction package,
it would either have to transmit the amendment to the states or
automatic spending cuts would be trigged. Republicans could
argue that the amendment -- which takes a two-thirds vote in
both houses to be sent for ratification to the states -- was the
only alternative to painful spending reductions.
Some Democrats said they wanted no part of a deal that
would omit any tax increase while cutting deeply into
government
spending and threatening still more reductions to safety-net
programs such as Medicare.
“This deal does not even attempt to strike a balance
between more cuts for the working people of America and a fairer
contribution from millionaires and corporations,”
Representative Raul Grijalva, the Arizona Democrat who leads the
Progressive Caucus, said in a statement. “I will not be a part
of it.”
No Backing
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California offered no
backing for the measure in a statement last night, nor promised
any Democratic votes. With a morning gathering of Democrats
planned behind closed doors, she said, “I look forward to
reviewing the legislation with my caucus to see what level of
support we can provide.”
Some Republicans also voiced disappointment with the
measure. Senator
Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said he was “highly
concerned” about the size of the deficit narrowing being
discussed, calling it too small to make a real difference in
reining in the debt.
“I’m afraid this is not going to fix the problem, and
that’s the one reason I came here,” said Johnson, a first-
termer elected with Tea Party support.
While the compromise will probably assuage immediate
concerns about a default in financial markets, “this relief
will be short,” said
Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief executive
officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s
largest manager of bond funds.
Standard & Poor’s
If S&P “sticks to what it said, it will downgrade” the
U.S. debt following the deal, El-Erian said in an interview on
ABC News “This Week.” The ratings company warned that the U.S.
may lose its top AAA sovereign grade depending on the contents
of the debt deal.
Peter Orszag, vice chairman of global banking at Citigroup
Inc. and former director of the Office of Management and Budget
in the Obama administration, told Bloomberg Television today
that there was a “real risk” of a ratings downgrade.
Sperling said credit rating services were closely watching
whether increases in the debt ceiling would be dependent on
multiple votes in Congress over a period of several months. That
prospect is no longer the case, he said.
“We’ve taken that cloud of uncertainty from default off
our economy, not only for the rest of this year but for the rest
of next year as well,” he said.