Turkey’s main stock index, the world’s second-best performer in the past month, may ignore “overbought” technical indicators and gain another 11 percent from its current record, leading emerging markets in breaching technical barriers, according to Auerbach Grayson & Co.
Turkey’s ISE 100 index may reach 73,200 by year-end, after closing at a record 69,675.08 yesterday, with an “upside” of 77,664, representing a 150 percent Fibonacci projection from a previous peak set in October 2007 to November 2008 low, said Richard Ross, a global technical strategist at Auerbach.
The ISE 100’s 14-day relative strength index has been above 70 for the past eight days,
reaching 85 today, and all but one day in the last 23, a series unmatched since a 26-day run higher than 70 ended Aug. 28 last year. The RSI identifies possible turning points in indexes or securities by measuring the degree that gains and losses outpace each other in a given time period. A reading above 70 means the gauge is poised to decline.
“When bulls are in control and buyers impose their will as they are in Turkey, traditional tools like RSI must be viewed within the context of the overall technical backdrop, which remains decidedly bullish,” Ross, based in New York, wrote in an e-mailed response to questions from Bloomberg yesterday.
The ISE, up 12 percent in the past month, bears a similar “technical signature” to that of other emerging markets, Ross said. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index has closed at an RSI above 70 for the past 14 days, Mexico’s IPC Index for the past seven and the MSCI Emerging-Market Index, with an RSI of 77.8 today, for the last 18 days.
Turkish stocks have been propelled to record highs on the government’s pledge to cut its deficit and economic growth matching China’s as the fastest among Group of 20 countries in the second quarter. Ross’s analysis sets aside such fundamental factors and is based on technical indicators, including Fibonacci analysis, a system pioneered in the 13th century that assumes asset prices will follow patterns based on proportions found in nature.
http://jodnet.blogspot.com
Turkey’s ISE 100 index may reach 73,200 by year-end, after closing at a record 69,675.08 yesterday, with an “upside” of 77,664, representing a 150 percent Fibonacci projection from a previous peak set in October 2007 to November 2008 low, said Richard Ross, a global technical strategist at Auerbach.
The ISE 100’s 14-day relative strength index has been above 70 for the past eight days,
reaching 85 today, and all but one day in the last 23, a series unmatched since a 26-day run higher than 70 ended Aug. 28 last year. The RSI identifies possible turning points in indexes or securities by measuring the degree that gains and losses outpace each other in a given time period. A reading above 70 means the gauge is poised to decline.
“When bulls are in control and buyers impose their will as they are in Turkey, traditional tools like RSI must be viewed within the context of the overall technical backdrop, which remains decidedly bullish,” Ross, based in New York, wrote in an e-mailed response to questions from Bloomberg yesterday.
The ISE, up 12 percent in the past month, bears a similar “technical signature” to that of other emerging markets, Ross said. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index has closed at an RSI above 70 for the past 14 days, Mexico’s IPC Index for the past seven and the MSCI Emerging-Market Index, with an RSI of 77.8 today, for the last 18 days.
Turkish stocks have been propelled to record highs on the government’s pledge to cut its deficit and economic growth matching China’s as the fastest among Group of 20 countries in the second quarter. Ross’s analysis sets aside such fundamental factors and is based on technical indicators, including Fibonacci analysis, a system pioneered in the 13th century that assumes asset prices will follow patterns based on proportions found in nature.
http://jodnet.blogspot.com
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