U.S. gasoline supplies probably declined last week to the lowest level since June as refiners performed seasonal maintenance and imports fell.
Stockpiles dropped 1.5 million barrels, or 0.7 percent, in the week ended Oct. 8 from 219.9 million in the prior seven-day period, based on the median of 18 analyst estimates before an Energy Department report tomorrow. Oil inventories increased in the survey and distillates slipped.
Gasoline futures touched the highest level in almost five months on Oct. 7 after U.S. refiners cut plant-operating rates and a strike at the French port of Marseille extended into a third week, threatening imports into New York Harbor.
“We’ve seen some pretty big declines in gasoline production lately,” said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., a trading adviser in New Canaan, Connecticut. “The refinery utilization number has dropped more consistently and further late this summer and fall than it has in other years.”
Refineries ran at 83.1 percent of capacity in the week ended Oct. 1, the lowest level since 2002 for this time of year, excluding shut-ins caused by hurricanes in 2005 and 2008, according to Energy Department figures.
Gasoline for November delivery rose 3.23 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $2.1562 a gallon at 9:51 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $2.2011 a gallon last week, the highest price since May 13 on an intraday basis.
French Strike
A nationwide strike by French refinery, power and gas workers lowered the country’s crude-oil processing rates and the possibility of fuel shortages loomed as Marseille oil terminals remained blocked. Workers at 10 of France’s 12 refineries voted to strike yesterday and some may extend the walkout to today, Christian Votte, a CGT union representative, said by phone.
“We expect gasoline imports to stay on the low side,” said Tom Knight, vice president of trading and supply at Truman Arnold Cos. in Texarkana, Texas. The price differential for contracts closest to delivery in New York Harbor may widen, a signal that supply will be tight on the East Coast, Knight said.
Gasoline imports into the U.S. Northeast fell 24 percent in the week ended Oct. 1 to 530,000 barrels a day, the lowest level in three weeks, according to the Energy Department.
The department is scheduled to release its weekly report at 11 a.m. tomorrow in Washington, a day later than usual because of the Columbus Day federal holiday on Oct. 11.
Fifteen of the analysts surveyed forecast gasoline supplies declined, and three said they rose. Inventories were 9.6 percent above the five-year average in the week ended Oct. 1.
Fuel Exports
Total fuel exports averaged a record 2.16 million barrels a day for a fourth straight week in the seven days ended Oct. 1, according to the Energy Department.
U.S. oil supplies probably rose 1.4 million barrels, or 0.4 percent, last week from 360.9 million to the highest level since the week ended June 25, the survey showed. Seventeen analysts provided crude oil estimates. Thirteen forecast inventories climbed, three said they fell and one estimated supplies were unchanged from the week before.
Refiners typically idle units for maintenance in September and October, a time when gasoline use falls and consumption of heating oil has yet to increase before the peak-demand winter months. The drop in output usually causes product inventories to decline and oil supplies to rise.
Houston Ship Channel
Some analysts forecast that the closure of the Houston Ship Channel last week will limit the oil-supply increase or cause stockpiles to drop. Traffic on the waterway, which serves the largest U.S. petroleum port, shut between Oct. 3 and 6 because of a damaged electrical tower.
That likely curbed oil imports, Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, a Galena, Illinois-based consulting company, said in a report.
Oil imports tumbled 0.9 percent to 8.93 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 1, the lowest level since the period ended Sept. 3. Overall inventories were 13 percent above the five-year average.
Crude for November delivery rose 97 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $82.64 a barrel on the Nymex. Prices closed above $80 a barrel for the past eight days.
Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably dropped 1.18 million barrels, or 0.7 percent, from 172.5 million. Fifteen of the respondents in the survey forecast a decline, two estimated an increase and one said supplies were unchanged from the week before.
Inventories in the week ended Aug. 20 were at the highest level since 1983. They were 22 percent above the five-year average in the week ended Oct. 1. Supplies have fallen in five of the past six weekly reports.
Refineries probably operated at 83.5 percent of capacity, in the week ended Oct. 8, up 0.4 percentage point from the previous period, according to the Bloomberg survey.
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Stockpiles dropped 1.5 million barrels, or 0.7 percent, in the week ended Oct. 8 from 219.9 million in the prior seven-day period, based on the median of 18 analyst estimates before an Energy Department report tomorrow. Oil inventories increased in the survey and distillates slipped.
Gasoline futures touched the highest level in almost five months on Oct. 7 after U.S. refiners cut plant-operating rates and a strike at the French port of Marseille extended into a third week, threatening imports into New York Harbor.
“We’ve seen some pretty big declines in gasoline production lately,” said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., a trading adviser in New Canaan, Connecticut. “The refinery utilization number has dropped more consistently and further late this summer and fall than it has in other years.”
Refineries ran at 83.1 percent of capacity in the week ended Oct. 1, the lowest level since 2002 for this time of year, excluding shut-ins caused by hurricanes in 2005 and 2008, according to Energy Department figures.
Gasoline for November delivery rose 3.23 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $2.1562 a gallon at 9:51 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $2.2011 a gallon last week, the highest price since May 13 on an intraday basis.
French Strike
A nationwide strike by French refinery, power and gas workers lowered the country’s crude-oil processing rates and the possibility of fuel shortages loomed as Marseille oil terminals remained blocked. Workers at 10 of France’s 12 refineries voted to strike yesterday and some may extend the walkout to today, Christian Votte, a CGT union representative, said by phone.
“We expect gasoline imports to stay on the low side,” said Tom Knight, vice president of trading and supply at Truman Arnold Cos. in Texarkana, Texas. The price differential for contracts closest to delivery in New York Harbor may widen, a signal that supply will be tight on the East Coast, Knight said.
Gasoline imports into the U.S. Northeast fell 24 percent in the week ended Oct. 1 to 530,000 barrels a day, the lowest level in three weeks, according to the Energy Department.
The department is scheduled to release its weekly report at 11 a.m. tomorrow in Washington, a day later than usual because of the Columbus Day federal holiday on Oct. 11.
Fifteen of the analysts surveyed forecast gasoline supplies declined, and three said they rose. Inventories were 9.6 percent above the five-year average in the week ended Oct. 1.
Fuel Exports
Total fuel exports averaged a record 2.16 million barrels a day for a fourth straight week in the seven days ended Oct. 1, according to the Energy Department.
U.S. oil supplies probably rose 1.4 million barrels, or 0.4 percent, last week from 360.9 million to the highest level since the week ended June 25, the survey showed. Seventeen analysts provided crude oil estimates. Thirteen forecast inventories climbed, three said they fell and one estimated supplies were unchanged from the week before.
Refiners typically idle units for maintenance in September and October, a time when gasoline use falls and consumption of heating oil has yet to increase before the peak-demand winter months. The drop in output usually causes product inventories to decline and oil supplies to rise.
Houston Ship Channel
Some analysts forecast that the closure of the Houston Ship Channel last week will limit the oil-supply increase or cause stockpiles to drop. Traffic on the waterway, which serves the largest U.S. petroleum port, shut between Oct. 3 and 6 because of a damaged electrical tower.
That likely curbed oil imports, Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, a Galena, Illinois-based consulting company, said in a report.
Oil imports tumbled 0.9 percent to 8.93 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 1, the lowest level since the period ended Sept. 3. Overall inventories were 13 percent above the five-year average.
Crude for November delivery rose 97 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $82.64 a barrel on the Nymex. Prices closed above $80 a barrel for the past eight days.
Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably dropped 1.18 million barrels, or 0.7 percent, from 172.5 million. Fifteen of the respondents in the survey forecast a decline, two estimated an increase and one said supplies were unchanged from the week before.
Inventories in the week ended Aug. 20 were at the highest level since 1983. They were 22 percent above the five-year average in the week ended Oct. 1. Supplies have fallen in five of the past six weekly reports.
Refineries probably operated at 83.5 percent of capacity, in the week ended Oct. 8, up 0.4 percentage point from the previous period, according to the Bloomberg survey.
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