The U.S. increased its crude-oil price forecast for 2011 by $1 a barrel on projections that global economic growth will lead to higher demand and that inventories in industrialized nations will decline.
West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark grade, will average $83 a barrel next year, up from a September forecast of $82, according to the Energy Department’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. The estimate includes an assumption that OPEC will boost its output as prices rise, tempering a bigger gain.
Oil will climb 6.5 percent in 2011 from a projected average of $77.97 this year, the department said. The 2010 figure increased 60 cents from last month and reflects a 26 percent advance from the 2009 average of $61.66 a barrel. Crude has averaged $77.90 a barrel so far this year in New York.
“World oil prices are expected to rise gradually as global economic growth leads to higher global oil demand and growth in non-OPEC supply slows in 2011,” according to the forecast by the Energy Information Administration, the department’s statistical arm.
U.S. gross domestic product will grow 2.6 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2011, down from projections of 2.8 percent and 2.3 percent a month ago, according to the report.
U.S. households will spend an average of $986 between October and March to heat their homes, an increase of $24, or 2.5 percent, from last winter, EIA projected today in its Winter Fuels Outlook.
Global Demand
The department raised its forecast for global oil consumption this year to 86.06 million barrels a day from 85.95 million last month. That’s up 2.1 percent from last year’s 84.33 million. Demand will climb to 87.44 million in 2011, 80,000 barrels a day higher than last month’s projection.
U.S. oil use will average 18.97 million barrels a day this year, up 200,000 barrels from 2009. This year’s forecast increased 40,000 barrels from the September estimate. Consumption will climb 110,000 barrels to 19.08 million in 2011, according to the report.
The 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced an average 29.49 million barrels a day in the third quarter, up 0.4 percent from the second quarter, the report showed.
Oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries signaled that they won’t alter their existing output targets when they meet tomorrow in Vienna.
The oil market is “well balanced,” Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said Oct. 12 when he arrived in Vienna. He called prices between $70 and $80 a barrel “ideal.”
OPEC Output
“EIA expects OPEC production will rise over the forecast period, keeping oil prices from increasing dramatically,” the Energy Department said in the report. “Should OPEC not increase production as global consumption recovers, oil prices could be significantly higher than the central forecast.”
OPEC has raised output by 5 percent from a five-year low reached in March 2009 and now exceeds its own target by 1.9 million barrels a day, about the same amount as Angola produces. Production was 29.1 million barrels a day last month, based on Bloomberg News estimates.
OPEC yesterday raised its forecast for 2010 global oil demand by 100,000 barrels a day to 85.59 million. That compares with 84.46 million last year. It said demand will climb to 86.64 million barrels a day next year.
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West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark grade, will average $83 a barrel next year, up from a September forecast of $82, according to the Energy Department’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. The estimate includes an assumption that OPEC will boost its output as prices rise, tempering a bigger gain.
Oil will climb 6.5 percent in 2011 from a projected average of $77.97 this year, the department said. The 2010 figure increased 60 cents from last month and reflects a 26 percent advance from the 2009 average of $61.66 a barrel. Crude has averaged $77.90 a barrel so far this year in New York.
“World oil prices are expected to rise gradually as global economic growth leads to higher global oil demand and growth in non-OPEC supply slows in 2011,” according to the forecast by the Energy Information Administration, the department’s statistical arm.
U.S. gross domestic product will grow 2.6 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2011, down from projections of 2.8 percent and 2.3 percent a month ago, according to the report.
U.S. households will spend an average of $986 between October and March to heat their homes, an increase of $24, or 2.5 percent, from last winter, EIA projected today in its Winter Fuels Outlook.
Global Demand
The department raised its forecast for global oil consumption this year to 86.06 million barrels a day from 85.95 million last month. That’s up 2.1 percent from last year’s 84.33 million. Demand will climb to 87.44 million in 2011, 80,000 barrels a day higher than last month’s projection.
U.S. oil use will average 18.97 million barrels a day this year, up 200,000 barrels from 2009. This year’s forecast increased 40,000 barrels from the September estimate. Consumption will climb 110,000 barrels to 19.08 million in 2011, according to the report.
The 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced an average 29.49 million barrels a day in the third quarter, up 0.4 percent from the second quarter, the report showed.
Oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries signaled that they won’t alter their existing output targets when they meet tomorrow in Vienna.
The oil market is “well balanced,” Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said Oct. 12 when he arrived in Vienna. He called prices between $70 and $80 a barrel “ideal.”
OPEC Output
“EIA expects OPEC production will rise over the forecast period, keeping oil prices from increasing dramatically,” the Energy Department said in the report. “Should OPEC not increase production as global consumption recovers, oil prices could be significantly higher than the central forecast.”
OPEC has raised output by 5 percent from a five-year low reached in March 2009 and now exceeds its own target by 1.9 million barrels a day, about the same amount as Angola produces. Production was 29.1 million barrels a day last month, based on Bloomberg News estimates.
OPEC yesterday raised its forecast for 2010 global oil demand by 100,000 barrels a day to 85.59 million. That compares with 84.46 million last year. It said demand will climb to 86.64 million barrels a day next year.
http://jodnet.blogspot.com
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